Labour Poised for Historic Win as Conservatives Lose Red Wall Strongholds and Cabinet Ministers

Labour Set to Win 420 Seats: A 190-Seat Majority

Labour leader Keir Starmer celebrates victory with MP Michael Shanks after Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
Labour leader Keir Starmer celebrates victory with MP Michael Shanks after Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. Photo: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

London, October 7, 2023 – In a startling revelation, new modeling data indicates that the Labour Party is on track for an electoral landslide, potentially echoing the historic 1997 victory. The findings, which project a complete collapse of the Conservative Party’s hold on the so-called “red wall” seats secured in the previous election, have sent shockwaves through the political landscape.

According to the constituency-by-constituency model obtained by The Observer, the Tories may lose over 20 seats in their southern strongholds, leading to a historic low in their seat count. Among the high-profile casualties predicted are Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, and leadership contender Penny Mordaunt. This scenario places the future of 12 cabinet ministers in jeopardy, unless Chancellor Rishi Sunak can narrow Labour’s lead in the polls.

The central projection of this model, accounting for the revised electoral boundaries, suggests that Labour could secure a staggering 420 seats, translating into an unprecedented majority of 190 seats. In contrast, the Conservative Party is forecasted to hold a mere 149 seats, with the Liberal Democrats expected to claim 23. These results closely mirror the 1997 landslide, where Tony Blair’s Labour Party secured a 179-seat majority with 418 seats. Additionally, the analysis reaffirms that voters remain deeply concerned about the cost of living and the state of the National Health Service (NHS).

This comprehensive study, commissioned by the 38 Degrees campaign group, was conducted by the Survation polling company, using a large sample of over 11,000 voters. The research employed a sophisticated modeling technique known as multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to derive constituency-level insights. Notably, this methodology successfully predicted electoral swings ahead of the 2017 general election.

While the average estimate suggests a 190-seat majority for Labour, the modeling, based on polling conducted shortly before the recent Conservative Party conference, presents a range of potential outcomes. Labour’s seat count could vary between 402 and 437, while the Tories might secure between 132 and 169 seats. This indicates a potential Labour majority ranging from 154 to 224 seats.

The analysis further reveals that all 44 “red wall” seats won by the Tories in the last election are projected to return to the Labour Party. Additionally, 22 “blue wall” seats, defined as those held by the Conservatives in 2019 with a majority of Remain voters and a high proportion of graduates, are expected to flip to Labour.

The study underscores the pressing concerns of voters. In every constituency, the cost of living and the state of the NHS emerged as the top priorities. Approximately one-third of respondents reported “getting by but making cutbacks,” while 8% described their financial situation as “financially desperate.” Moreover, 42% mentioned difficulties in securing a GP appointment in the past six months.

In a significant setback for Rishi Sunak, Labour is shown to have substantial leads in “red wall” seats. In Blyth Valley, a key “red wall” constituency, Labour is leading by 49% to 22%. In Hartlepool, another formerly Conservative-held seat, Labour enjoys a commanding 38-point lead. In both areas, a quarter of voters expressed concerns about their financial future.

The analysis also predicts that Bassetlaw, which saw the largest swing from Labour to the Tories in 2019, is likely to return to Labour with a 23-point lead. Meanwhile, North Dorset, a traditionally Conservative stronghold, is projected to fall to the Liberal Democrats, with 64% of voters naming the NHS as their top concern.

Matthew McGregor, CEO of 38 Degrees, emphasized that these findings signal a desire for change among voters and cautioned Labour against complacency. He stressed the need for concrete action to address the cost of living and NHS crises, as these issues are expected to dominate the upcoming election.

The results cast doubt on the likelihood of an early spring election, as figures close to the Prime Minister oppose a May vote. Within the Labour Party, concerns persist regarding the clarity of Keir Starmer’s vision for leadership.

Damian Lyons Lowe, CEO of Survation, highlighted the significant swing back to Labour in “red wall” seats and in areas with a high proportion of Leave voters. Even traditional Conservative strongholds in the south-east and south-west are at risk from the Liberal Democrats and Labour, according to the analysis.

Also Read: England’s Schools Hit by £50 Per Pupil Cut

Survation conducted polling involving 11,793 respondents between September 11th and September 25th, 2023.

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